Chasing a flush on the internet – Sometimes the numbers just don’t add up!
There’s an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? Very first of all we ought to define what we imply here by "chasing a flush online."
Chasing anything in Texas hold em poker could be the practice of wagering to stay in a palm in the hope which you will make a greater hands, even while you may well have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush means wagering that you will acquire the card or card which you should total your flush palm within the turn or river. You can’t chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush is not on.
So let us say you happen to be wagering one of the major poker sites on the internet, you’ve been dealt the Ace and nine of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is twos seven-s King of diamonds and one of your competitors comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized increase, what do you do?
Very first of all ask yourself what type of hands you are up against. The possibilities are triples, yet another flush draw, a pair of Kings or a complete bluff, so as it stands you are only winning against the bluff with your Ace. To the other hand in the event you hit a spade in the last 2 cards you may have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.
To the face of it you may possibly assume that statistically you might have about a 50-50 possibility of hitting your spade, after all there’s two cards to arrive and 4 suits so there must be about a half probability, right?
Wrong!
You already have two of the spades in your hand and there’s a different two showing on the table, so you know five cards and four of them are spades. That suggests you might have nine spades left accessible out of the forty seven cards you haven’t seen, which is only a forty two percent possibility of catching your flush.
When you do bet around the turn and don’t generate your flush, what do you do then? You might have probably now grow to be pot-committed, you might have put so much into the pot that you simply may well as effectively wager again on the river unless there’s a massive increase or all-in against you, but now your chances of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only 21 per-cent.
But what of that other factor, the mysterious web poker syndrome? What I mean by that is while you statistically have a forty two per cent likelihood of generating a flush, is that what in fact occurs in reality? If you bet the similar hand in the similar internet based poker table 100 occasions would you acquire a flush forty two occasions? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a good deal less frequently than forty two out of 100 occasions!
That is just my own opinion and I am sure the poker sites would tell you a various story, except the way I see it’s 42 % will be the very Greatest you happen to be ever going to have and you may perhaps nicely have a whole lot less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the net is a extremely risky strategy that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you enough of a chance of pulling out the succeeding hand.
